AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Close the Week Down 2.37%

Corn futures ended the Friday session down 6 to 8 cents and within a penny of the lows in most nearby contracts, as July options expired today. July futures were down 2.37% this week. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec funds in corn futures and options added another 32,303 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 143,515 contracts. Total US export commitments for 18/19 are now 87% of USDA’s export projection, vs. the 99% average. Accumulated exports are in line with the normal pace at 75%, but unshipped sales are lagging. With US FOB prices at such a large premium, it will be difficult to see old crop bookings pick up in the fourth quarter. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs the Argentine corn harvest at 44.2% complete, lagging the 50.3% average pace.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.42 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.47 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.53 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.59 1/4, down 7 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Down Double Digits on Friday

Soybean futures saw losses of 12 to 13 1/2 cents in most contracts on Friday, as July closed the week up 0.67%. Soymeal was down $7.40/ton on the day and 2.44% lower this week. Bean oil was 15 points lower but held the complex up this week, rising 3.01%. Money managers in soybean futures and options trimmed their net short position by 35,848 contracts as of 6/18 to -55,307 contracts according to Commitment of Traders data. Old crop soybeans export commitments are 103% of the USDA export projection with the typical pace at 100%. There is still a large amount of unshipped sales (11.01 MMT), with shipments at 79% of the USDA vs the average of 90% at this point. Of the total outstanding sales 6.01 MMT have been booked by Chinese buyers with just 2 1/2 months left in the MY.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.02 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.08 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.14 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/4, down 13 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $315.60, down $7.40,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.44, down $0.15

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Closes Lower, Pressured by Corn

Wheat futures closed Friday with CBT and MPLS contracts steady to 2 1/4 cents lower, as nearby MPLS was down 4.84% this week and CBT 2.32% lower. KC was down 3 to 8 cents to end the week, losing 5% on the week. That brings the CBT-KC spread out to a huge 73 1/2 cents, premium to SRW. Pressure came from losses in corn and soybeans. Commitment of Traders data showed specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 20,064 contracts to their net long position at 22,713 by Tuesday. They trimmed 2,880 contracts from their net short position in KC to -20,744 contracts. The KC wheat-corn nearby spread is now 10 1/4 cents, causing a ration change to wheat to look more attractive for the near-term (depending on local basis and HRW availability).

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.26, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.52 1/2, down 8 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36, down 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle on Feed Record for June, May Beef Stocks at 5-Year Low

Live cattle futures were down 40 cents to $1.725 on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were $1.025 to $1.325 lower. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report indicated June 1 on feed numbers up 1.62% from last year at 11.74 million head. May placements were down 2.8% yr/yr, with marketings up 0.68%. The Cold Storage report showed frozen beef stocks of 403.552 million lbs at the end of May, down 6.2% from April and a 8.69% drop from a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index was down 6 cents to $131.43 on June 20. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 90 cents at $219.82 with Select boxes $1.93 lower @ $199.55. USDA estimated the week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 662,000 head through Saturday. That was 4,000 head larger than the same point last year and down 3,000 from last week. Cash trade of $110 was reported in most regions on Thursday, down $1-2 from last week, with dressed sales of $180-181 in the north.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $106.550, down $1.625,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $102.225, down $1.725,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $104.150, down $1.425,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.675, down $1.025

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.050, down $1.325

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.500, down $1.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Post Limit Losses on Friday

Lean Hog futures saw limit losses in the front months out to Oct, with other back months sharply lower. July was down 6.27% this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 6 cents from the previous day @ $79.55 on June 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 71 cents on Friday afternoon at $76.73. The national average base hog was 69 cents lower at $74.03 per hundred pounds on Friday. This week’s estimated FI hog slaughter is 2.449 million head through Saturday. That was up 18,000 from the previous week and well above the same week in 2018. Pork Stocks at the end of May were reported at 628.660 million lbs, 1.16% larger than April and 0.79% above last year. Belly stocsk were up 4.7% from in 2018 at 64.122 million lbs.

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $76.250, down $3.000,

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $77.900, down $3.000

Oct 19 Hogs closed at $72.725, down $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Down 7.2% This Week

Cotton futures fell another 202 points in July on Friday, closing down 7.2% on the week. Other contracts were 37 to 77 points lower. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding 144 contracts to their net short position of 30,385 contracts as of Tuesday. Total upland cotton export commitments are now 110% of USDA’s projection, compared to the 104% average, as shipments are behind normal pace (87%) at 80%. The Cotlook A index for June 20 was up 40 points from the previous day to 77.90 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 59.14 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 61.190, down 202 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 64.730, down 77 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 65.560, down 40 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com